Everyone is talking about oil, but everyone should spare a few moments of fear and despair for electricity as well. Consider this, oil consumption in America has only increased 15% since the last major oil crisis in 1973. Electricity consumption has increased 115% over the same time period. This domestic discrepancy will only get worse as more plasma televisions, energy guzzling laptops, and electronic gadgets get plugged into the grid. And imagine how demand will spike if an extremely popular electric car comes to market. Some states are already feeling the impact. Texas, Georgia, Loisiana, and Ohio have all experienced price hikes ranging from 20-80% .
Here are some numbers:
National grid has 760 gigawatts of power plants, meeting current consumption. There are 154 gigs in reserve capacity. Of the 154 reserve gigs, 144 are needed for essential lighting demands, meaning we actually only have 10 gigs as a buffer.
NERC estimates a 135 gig demand increase during the next decade. Currently only 57 gigs of new power plant production is planned
Current Energy Sources
Coal 50% - US is second largest producer of coal next to China. China, a former exporter of coal, has experienced such a rapid increase in energy demand that last year they began importing coal. Coal prices have doubled in the past two years and Merrill Lynch forecasts another doubling this year. Also, 59 coal-fired energy plants were canceled in 2007 and another 50 are being contested now. In summation, coal demand is increasing and coal power plants do not have full public support, and the only way to gain that support is through a cleaner form of burning coal.
Natural Gas 20 % - Domestic natural gas fields are nearly tapped out and environmental concerns are restricting prospecting. America was supposed to find relief from the supply strain by importing liquefied natural gas from Spain and India, but Japan and Korea are willing to pay 30-40% more than the US causing shipments to be diverted. Summation, we will either need to allow additional natural gas prospecting or be willing to pay a higher price for LNG.
Nuclear 20% - No nuclear plants have been licensed in the past three decades, and existing nuclear plants are having difficulty getting license renewal. Also, construction of nuclear plant costs between $5-10 billion, and experts estimate that it takes five years of licensing and testing to be able to begin building a plant. Once again, unless public opinion changes regarding security of nuclear plants and the handling of nuclear waste this will not be an answer.
Let us look at alternative energy.
Hydroelectric 7% – Hydro electricity has one major limiting element, water movement. In major energy consuming cities such as Los Angeles, New York, Boston, and San Francisco just to name a few, there is not the huge amount of traveling water that can be harnessed like the Hoover Dam. Also, huge dams, like Hoover, have major environmental impacts down stream. There is hope that small hydro electric generators can help circumvent hydros limiting elements.
Wind 1% - Technology is increasing the efficiency of wind mills. Analysts at Credit Suisse say that wind is the most cost effective renewable energy producer to date. With new technologies popping up, such as off-shore wind farms, technology that allows for various altitude wind capture, wind is showing a lot of potential. Problem, wind is fairly unreliable and often blows in the evenings, when energy demand is typically lower. Since currently there is no effective way to effectively store this energy it does not help meet peak demand needs. Summary: huge amount of potential but need to be able to store energy to fully capitalize on the opportunity.
Solar .01% – Solar generates its most energy during peak demand times making it a seemingly ideal solution. However, solar cell efficiency has been a major issue. A major component needed to make efficient solar cells is polysilicate. Polysilicate is also used in microchips, which go into nearly every electronic devic. So as demand for electronics increases so will demand and subsequent price for polysilicate. This will lead to an increased cost of production for solar, and until advances in solar technology justify the increased cost it remains unviable.
Final thoughts: Most realistic solution I see is improve and use the technologies that we have. 1) Improve current coal scrubber technology since we will need coal factories for the near future. The lease we can do is make them better. 2) Develop energy storage systems so we can produce energy during off peak for use during peak times to ensure we have sufficient supply. When I say energy storage systems I do not mean build a network of huge batters. I think we should develop systems for storing potential energy at night and converting that potential energy into connect during peak hours. For example, what if we pumped water up hill during off peak and ran it through hydro during peak? What if used wind at night to create tension in elastic lines which we released to power turbines during the day? What if we began heating objects during the evening and stored pressurized air in tanks, and further heated during the day with reflective solar panels and released the air to power turbines. 3)Further continue to develop new alternative fuels like geothermal, biomass, and wave. We also need to look for even more sources for energy generation.
A lot of the statistics and data is from Forbest article, Brown Out, by Mark P. Mills. Also, Wikipedia, Los Angeles Times, and Credit Suisse Alternative Energy Analysis Report
